{"id":1035,"date":"2017-08-08T11:18:11","date_gmt":"2017-08-07T22:18:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/?p=1035"},"modified":"2017-08-08T11:18:11","modified_gmt":"2017-08-07T22:18:11","slug":"tools-for-thinking-about-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/?p=1035","title":{"rendered":"Tools for thinking about the future"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This <a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2015\/05\/outsmart-your-own-biases\">HBR article<\/a> from a couple of years ago has some good techniques for helping make better bets about how the future might evolve for a specific outcomes. \u00a0They would be useful when you&#8217;re at the pointy end of a scenario exercise, rather than at the start. \u00a0The entire piece is a worthwhile read, and my three main relevant takeaways can be summarised as:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>When estimating data points that may occur in the future, make three estimates &#8211; one high, one low, and then, by extension, one that falls in the middle. \u00a0The middle estimate is much more likely to be accurate.<\/li>\n<li>In a similar fashion, make two estimates about future data points, then take the average. \u00a0Note that it&#8217;s important to take a break between making the two estimates in order to avoid bias.<\/li>\n<li>Create a <em>premortem<\/em> i.e. imagine a future failure and then explain the cause.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This HBR article from a couple of years ago has some good techniques for helping make better bets about how the future might evolve for a specific outcomes. \u00a0They would be useful when you&#8217;re at the pointy end of a scenario exercise, rather than at the start. \u00a0The entire piece is a worthwhile read, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-futures-thinking","category-innovation-processes"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1035"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1035\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1036,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1035\/revisions\/1036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdennis.com\/ideaport\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}